{"id":3931,"date":"2024-01-25T09:42:05","date_gmt":"2024-01-25T09:42:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/estadocomarte.pt\/site\/?p=3931"},"modified":"2024-01-25T09:42:05","modified_gmt":"2024-01-25T09:42:05","slug":"a-mae-de-todas-as-sondagens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/estadocomarte.pt\/site\/2024\/01\/25\/a-mae-de-todas-as-sondagens\/","title":{"rendered":"A M\u00e3e de Todas as Sondagens"},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u00e3o est\u00e1, nas elei\u00e7\u00f5es, em causa uma extrapola\u00e7\u00e3o baseada numa amostra diminuta, mas sim a contagem dos votos de todos os eleitores participantes.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Em tempo de elei\u00e7\u00f5es, todas as sondagens s\u00e3o pardas.<\/p>\n

\u00c9 frequente duvidar-se das sondagens, seja pela simples constata\u00e7\u00e3o emp\u00edrica da sua falibilidade, seja pelo receio de que possam estar a ser manipuladas.<\/p>\n

Desde que foi anunciada a demiss\u00e3o do Primeiro-Ministro e a Dissolu\u00e7\u00e3o da Assembleia da Rep\u00fablica, a incerteza sobre a fiabilidade das sondagens tem aumentado vertiginosamente, porque temos sido brindados com sucessivas sondagens com resultados muito divergentes, \u00abpara todos os gostos\u00bb.<\/p>\n

As explica\u00e7\u00f5es para isso podem ser v\u00e1rias, como a indecis\u00e3o e mudan\u00e7a de opini\u00e3o dos eleitores – natural em per\u00edodos politicamente conturbados como os que vivemos, com sucessivos esc\u00e2ndalos e troca de acusa\u00e7\u00f5es \u2013 aspectos t\u00e9cnicos relacionados com dimens\u00e3o e composi\u00e7\u00e3o das amostras utilizadas, ou at\u00e9 algumas eventuais manipula\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/p>\n

Independentemente disso, a verdade \u00e9 que s\u00f3 as elei\u00e7\u00f5es propriamente ditas, sobretudo se muito participadas, poder\u00e3o tirar uma fotografia correcta \u00e0 vontade dos eleitores, pois nelas todos os cidad\u00e3os t\u00eam o direito \u2013 e sobretudo o dever, de um ponto de vista \u00e9tico e c\u00edvico \u2013 de participar e de exprimir a sua op\u00e7\u00e3o para o governo de Portugal na pr\u00f3xima legislatura. N\u00e3o est\u00e1, nas elei\u00e7\u00f5es, em causa uma extrapola\u00e7\u00e3o baseada numa amostra diminuta, mas sim a contagem dos votos de todos os eleitores participantes.<\/p>\n

Tal como a mais poderosa bomba convencional \u00e9 conhecida como g\u00edria militar como \u00aba m\u00e3e de todas as bombas\u00bb, tamb\u00e9m as elei\u00e7\u00f5es devem ser consideradas \u00aba m\u00e3e de todas as sondagens\u00bb, seja por ser a \u00fanica \u00absondagem\u00bb que (por natureza) acerta sempre, seja por ser a \u00fanica que cujos resultados s\u00e3o vinculativos, e relevantes de um ponto de vista pol\u00edtico e jur\u00eddico, determinando a composi\u00e7\u00e3o do Parlamento e consequentemente tamb\u00e9m o pr\u00f3ximo Governo.<\/p>\n

Por essa raz\u00e3o, n\u00e3o \u00e9 importante especular demasiado sobre as sondagens com que somos bombardeados semana sim, semana n\u00e3o. A \u00fanica coisa que realmente importa \u00e9 participar no acto eleitoral, e assim integrar a \u00fanica amostra de eleitores que efectivamente releva em termos pr\u00e1ticos: a dos que votam, e dessa forma exercem os seus direitos pol\u00edticos, manifestando e fazendo valer a sua vontade nos momentos decisivos, como \u00e9 pr\u00f3prio numa democracia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nuno Lumbrales,
\nAdvogado<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3539,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[64,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-isto-para-nos","category-opiniao"],"yoast_head":"\nA M\u00e3e de Todas as Sondagens - Estado com Arte<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/estadocomarte.pt\/site\/2024\/01\/25\/a-mae-de-todas-as-sondagens\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A M\u00e3e de Todas as Sondagens - 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